Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Longest Rush
The Chiefs have committed to the ground game in the playoffs. They haven’t consistently succeeded on every single snap, but Andy Reid is committed to the rushing attack. This was clear against the Ravens. Isiah Pacheco carried the ball 24 times for 68 yards. This is under three yards per carry, but he still received 24 attempts.
The week before, he ran 15 times for 97 yards and ripped off a 29-yard carry against the Bills. In the two games before this, he had a 23-yard carry against the Dolphins and a 37-yard run against the Bengals. According to CHFF Stats, the one area to attack San Francisco is on the ground. They rank 13th in Defensive Rusher Rating and 14th in Defensive Hog Index.
In the Divisional round, Aaron Jones had a 53-yard run. In the NFC Championship, David Montgomery had a 16-yard run, and Jameson Williams went for 42 yards. There are holes on the ground, and Pacheco should find them in the Super Bowl.
CMC Over 130.5 Rush + Rec
Big-time players make big-time plays in big-game situations. Christian McCaffrey is one of the biggest X-Factors in this game. Brock Purdy’s arm cannot beat the Chiefs on his own. San Francisco needs to run the ball well and use CMC in the passing game. Last week, CMC was expected to struggle against the Lions' front seven. Detroit had one of the best-rushing defenses in the NFL, but the running back came out on top.
CMC was sometimes stuffed, but Kyle Shanahan didn’t abandon the run, and he ended the game with 90 yards on 20 carries. The Chiefs have allowed 113 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, many of which have come from quarterbacks.
However, this is what they were also allowing in the regular season. McCaffrey will make plays on the ground. He will also be used as a safety valve for a solid Chiefs pass rush. This will lead to him going over 130.5 total yards.
Brock Purdy Under 12.5 Rushing Yards
Brock Purdy is coming off a great rushing game. He broke the Lions backs last week with five carries for 48 yards. The week before, he had six runs for 14 yards. Yet, this hasn't been the case throughout the season.
He was 12-4 to the under on this line in the regular season. The Chiefs just put on a masterclass defending Lamar Jackson’s rushing attack last week.
He ran eight times for 54 yards, which was a downgrade from what he had done in prior weeks. The 49ers don't want Brock Purdy running the ball. They want him to have plenty of time and scan the field.
Look for the 49ers to ease Purdy into the game and run the ball with CMC. When Purdy does throw, I don't expect an epic downfield passing attack, which tends to lead to long QB runs. Purdy may use his legs a few times, but the Chiefs will have a game plan to contain him just like they did with Jackson last week.