The Defensive Rookie of the Year market looks very different from the offensive one. Here, the chalk should see loads of snaps from day one and rack up stats. It’s a good class, and deep, which makes it an interesting market to analyze.
We’re breaking down Hutchinson and Thibodeaux together because they share the top spot on the board, play the same position, and were both high draft picks. At these odds, we probably can’t bet them both, so we will build our position around one and fade the other.
We like both of these guys, but Hutchinson is more polished and as such should be the better rookie. Thibodeaux has loads of upside, and may well have the better career, but Hutchinson seems more NFL-ready, and that’s what we care about right now.
VERDICT: BET Hutchinson, FADE Thibodeaux
Walker is even rawer than Thibodeaux and would be nowhere near the top of the board had Trent Baalke not become enamored with him during the draft process.
Like Thibodeaux, Walker may well have a solid career, but his lack of production at Georgia makes him unbeatable at this price, and we have to be skeptical until we see it on the field.
VERDICT: FADE
Hamilton is one of the most talented players in the class, heads to a good team, and seems NFL-ready. The problem is he’s a safety; a position of lesser importance.
A safety has not won the award since Mark Carrier in 1990, and only two secondary players have won since 1998. Hamilton is great, but an easy fade at this number given how hard it will be for his statistics to compare to the edge rushers.
VERDICT: FADE
Gardner and Stingley also have similar profiles as top-five draft picks at cornerback, so they too will be grouped together.
Gardner had an incredible season at Cincinnati and has drawn rave reviews at camp, while Stingley was ridiculously good at LSU as a freshman before injury and ineffectiveness derailed his last two seasons.
Both guys have shown flashes of elite talent, but the only corners to take this thing down since 1998 are Jalen Ramsey and Marshon Lattimore. Is it possible these guys are on that level? Sure. Should we bet on it at this price? No.
VERDICT: FADE
Johnson slipped in the draft because he was on the older side and only has one year of elite production, but his age does not matter when capping this award.
This is a guy who has played at Georgia and Florida State and should get plenty of snaps from day one. Edge rushers dominate this award, and this profile is exactly the type I want in my portfolio.
VERDICT: BET
Lloyd is another older prospect who slid a little on draft day, but unlike Johnson, he does his best work as an off-ball linebacker, an increasingly devalued position.
Dean probably has a better chance playing for an Eagles defense that should be much improved, but this award is just brutally difficult for non-edge rushers.
Shaquille (Darius) Leonard and Luke Kuechly have pulled it off in recent memory, but that shows how good you have to be. Betting on rookies to be multiple-time All-Pros is a poor investment.
VERDICT: FADE
Karlaftis’ production is a little short of what we would want to see, but the Chief’s defense could really use a playmaker and he will be given every chance to blossom.
He would be a fade if he was up where the other top edge guys are, but at +2000 on a contender, he is worth a dart throw.
VERDICT: BET
In summation, we want to bet on edge rushers to win this award. The last three winners have come off the edge, and five of the last 11 as well (seven if you include Sheldon Richardson and Aaron Donald). Sacks win this award, bet the guys who have shown they can get them.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.