When you look at the Cold, Hard Football Facts proprietary stats, the Eagles are clearly a superior team to the Chiefs. However, Kansas City has been statistically inferior to many teams on their schedule this season, but they know how to win.
People can talk about the refs as much as they want, but Kansas City always finds a way to make plays. Over the past two seasons, we have wrongly predicted Chiefs games, taking their opponents with better proprietary stats.
We made the switch in the Super Bowl last season, and took the Chiefs to prevail, despite being worse in the stats than the 49ers.
While the Chiefs usually are statistically inferior, this game feels slightly different. Kansas City is playing excellent football, but the Eagles look unstoppable, and have lost just once since Week 4.
The Eagles rank well in the stats, but for them to win the Super Bowl, they have to play great. Kansas City is one of the smartest teams in the NFL, ranking sixth in Intelligence Index. They're also fifth in Bendability, which means they deliver with their red zone defense.
The team is also first in the Quality Standings, which shows a team's efficiency against quality opponents. Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be ready for this game, so Philadelphia must earn the win.
The first key to victory for the Eagles is to keep Mahomes in the pocket. Vic Fangio defenses rush four, drop seven and don't allow explosive plays. Philadelphia is fourth in Defensive Hog Index, so they have every opportunity to contain Mahomes legs.
The next key to the game for Philadelphia is to score touchdowns in the red zone. The Chiefs have one of the best red zone defenses in the NFL, and teams usually lose to the Chiefs because they settle for field goals. You can't beat the Chiefs by kicking field goals, and the Eagles know this, after losing to them in Super Bowl 57.
Philadelphia should have success near the goal line with the fourth ranked Offensive Rusher Rating unit in the NFL. They're also fifth in Offensive Passer Rating, and Jalen Hurts is coming off a tremendous game.
The final key to the game is that the Eagles must get lucky. The Chiefs usually don't make mistakes, and if they play clean, we'll gladly pick them to win. However, they need to create turnovers and hope the Chiefs don't play like themselves. The odds of this aren't likely, but anything can happen in the big game.
Enahance your winning in NFL betting or fantasy play through our quality stats. With your subscription you get...
Quality Stats
Our simple to use, ground-breaking Quality Stats power the winning game coverate at CHFF, which has produced an incredible record fo success analying teeams and agames for football bettors for over 20 years.
Game Capsule | + |
Prop Wagers | + |
Leader Boards | + |
Future Odds | + |
News | + |
Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.