Thanksgiving football is HERE. The games may not be overly entertaining, but there is always betting value, and we have found it through the prop markets. The Cold, Hard Football Facts have successfully predicted the outcome of NFL games and seasons for over 20 years, and our proprietary stats have been on FIRE. 

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The first prop we're going with is Caleb Williams Under 227.5 Passing Yards. Williams is coming off a massive game against the Vikings where he threw for 340 yards. However, this hasn't been the Williams we have seen for most of the season. 

Williams hasn't been explosive with the football, and now he faces a massive challenge against the Lions. The argument can definitely be made that Williams will have to throw more as the Bears play from behind. However, he is facing an elite defense according to the Cold, Hard Football Facts. 

The best way to attack the Lions is on the ground, so the Bears should lean on this aspect of their offense. Detroit is first in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating, first in Defensive Passer Rating and second in Bendability, so the route to 228 passing yards is very tough for Williams. 

The next prop we're taking is Malik Nabers Over 67.5 Receiving Yards. Nabers complained last week how he didn't get the ball enough with his typical diva WR1 rant. The Giants should emphasize getting Nabers the ball this week, and Drew Lock is a quarterback with starting experience. 

Our biggest fear is the Giants ability to protect Lock, but Dallas' defense has been very bad overall. We're confident that if Lock has time, he will find Nabers because the Cowboys are 26th in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating, 23rd in Defensive Passer Rating, and 28th in Total Team Yards Allowed.