Chiefs -1.5 vs Eagles
The Chiefs find ways to win and until someone knocks them off, I can't go against the dynasty. Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 in the playoffs. He is 8-0 against Vic Fangio coached defenses with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions.
While these stats are great, the reasoning behind taking Kansas City is that they have a championship DNA. You have arguably the greatest quarterback to ever play the game with a chance to make history and win three Super Bowls in a row...you don't pass up that betting opportunity.
The Eagles are a better team overall, but I believe the Chiefs will be more prepared and they always seem to come up big when it counts. They're going to have trouble stopping Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown and everyone the Eagles have on their team, but every time I watch the Chiefs I always believe they're going to win and they pretty much have since Mahomes started at quarterback.
Score to be tied after 0-0 (-135)
This bet has hit in each of the past two Super Bowls. Kansas City plays a lot of tight games, and the thing that these teams have in common is they play very good red zone defense. When you get stops in the red zone, field goals are more likely and the games are closer. Close game result in ties and lead changes.
According to the Cold, Hard Football Facts, the Chiefs are fifth in Bendability and the Eagles are 11th. They make teams work for their points, so I do believe this will be close. All Kansas City has done this season is play close games this season.
For the price we're getting, this has a lot of value and it's always one of my favorite Super Bowl props to bet because it's fun to sweat.
Patrick Mahomes Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Patrick Mahomes designed runs last week were an anomaly compared to this season. Mahomes has used his legs to pick up tough yards, but the designed runs we saw last week don't usually happen. This is why it makes sense that him and Kareem Hunt had the fumble on the quarterback read play.
The Eagles have allowed under 20 rushing yards to quarterbacks per game this season. Jayden Daniels averaged eight yards per carry last week and had close to 50, but Mahomes is a totally different quarterback.
Vic Fangio defenses are going rush four, drop seven and make offenses work for every yard. The Eagles defense does a great job staying in their rush lanes and not allowing the pocket to spill. If it does, Philadelphia has plenty of players in coverage to prevent big quarterback runs. The Eagles are fifth in Real QBR, so they do a great job defending all aspects of quarterback play.
AJ Brown Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Chiefs love to play man and AJ Brown is the best receiver in the NFL against man coverage. This makes sense because he's a physical freak of nature as we saw in the Conference Championship Game. Brown had six catches for 96 yards with a touchdown.
If you're Steve Spagnuolo, you can't let Saquon Barkley beat you in the Super Bowl. This means something has to give, and my guess is Brown. If the Chiefs play man coverage against Brown, he will put up numbers.
Kansas City has a very good pass rush, but Brown has been very effective with quick routes as well in the playoffs. Philadelphia is fifth in Offensive Passer Rating. They don't throw much, but when they do it tends to work out favorably.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.