49ers +2 @ GB

The 49ers are coming off a last-second loss to the Seahawks, but let's not act like the Packers dominated the Bears last week. If Green Bay doesn't block the kick at the end of the game, the narrative for the Packers is much different, and they're not the third-ranked team in the NFC Championship odds standings. 

San Francisco is currently +200 to make the playoffs, just over a 30% implied probability. They have the tiebreaker in the NFC West over the Cardinals and are just one game back, but their schedule is a gauntlet. This is a must-win game because the 49ers played the Bills and Lions moving forward, and they can only afford two more losses at most to make the playoffs. 

I think San Francisco will make a desperate effort, and let's not forget how much experience this team has in big games. Christian McCaffrey has been very effective the past two weeks, but the team isn't converting in the red zone. They can match Josh Jacob's success in this game with McCaffrey, but the way to beat the Packers is through the air. 

I fully expect Brock Purdy to bounce back after last week, as he faces an average secondary (13th in Defensive Passer Rating) and for the 49ers championship DNA to take over on Sunday. 

Mike Evans Over 53.5 Receiving Yards

Since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went down against the Ravens, Cade Otton has become the best tight end in the NFL. When these two were on the field, Otton barely got any targets. I don't think Otton will become a non-factor, but his production will decline with Evans back, and 53.5 yards is a great line for the future Hall of Famer. 

The Giants are a terrible team. According to reports, benching Daniel Jones has made the locker room more toxic, which isn't helping them improve. New York is 28th in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating and 31st in Defensive Passer Rating. 

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are fourth in Offensive Passer Rating and in win-or-go-home mode. With their schedule over the final seven games and Atlanta's recent losses, the division is still slightly open for Tampa Bay. This is a must-win, and their route to victory is through the air.  

Puka Nacua Over 67.5 Receiving Yards

Puka Nacua caught seven passes for 123 yards last week against the Patriots. He has hit 100 receiving yards in three of his past four games and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. The Rams play bad defense, which forces them to throw the ball all over the field. 

I expect the Eagles to score points on Sunday Night Football, setting Nacua up for a big game. Los Angeles will have to score to answer the Eagles onslaught of points. Philadelphia has an elite secondary and an excellent defense, but the bulk targets should help Nacua get over this line. 

Bears vs Vikings Under 39

The Bears' defense has been stout all season. They have given up a lot of points because Caleb Williams and Chicago's offense hasn't played complementary football. This would be my largest fear heading into this game from an under-betting perspective. However, they held the Packers to 20 points last week and just seven in the first half.

The team is seventh in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating and sixth in Defensive Passer Rating. They're good enough to slow down the Vikings, especially if they can successfully bracket Justin Jefferson and limit his big plays. 

Minnesota's defense under Brian Flores has been one of the best in the NFL. They're third in Defensive Passer Rating and first in Defensive Rusher Rating. Caleb Williams hasn't successfully tapped into Chicago's weapons and has the 28th-worst QBR in the NFL. Both offenses are contained, and we see a 20-10 win for the Vikings.