The NFC South odds have gone too far in favor of the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are now -130 to win the division on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Buccaneers are +310. 

Atlanta does have the easiest schedule in the NFL and they added Kirk Cousins, but it doesn't warrant -130 odds. Tampa Bay is returning a very similar team to last season, and their odds have a lot of value considering they have won the division for three straight seasons. 

We're betting on Tampa Bay and the Cold, Hard Football Facts support the wager. The Cold, Hard Football Facts proprietary stats have successfully predicted the outcome of NFL games and seasons for over 20 years. 

Tampa Bay was the 15th ranked team in the Quality Stats Power Rankings last season and it led to a playoff win. They improved in the areas of the CHFF stats where they didn't measure well, which is a benefit when betting on them to win the division. 

The most significant statistic amongst our proprietary metrics is Real Quarterback Rating. Baker Mayfield ranked 11th in this stat, and 7th in Offensive Passer Rating one season ago. 

Mayfield proved he is a franchise quarterback, and he did this under tough circumstances. He had been passed around the league, and was playing with his career on the line under a one year deal.

The quarterback posted tremendous numbers, earned an extension and is positioned for a huge year. While Cousins is a great quarterback, Mayfield is just as talented in high leverage situations. 

The two areas where the Buccaneers struggled were in the secondary and on the offensive line. Tampa Bay ranked 23rd in Defensive Passer Rating and 17th in Offensive Hog Index. Their poor rating on the offensive line led to the 29th ranked Offensive Rusher Rating metric in the league. 

The team signed Jordan Whitehead at safety, and still have All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. on the opposite side of the field. Their cornerback group isn't great, but Todd Bowles is an excellent defensive mind, so we anticipate improvements. 

The offensive line is anchored by All-Pro Tristan Wirfs and they drafted center Graham Barton in the first round out of Duke. OG Cody Mauch was the team's second round pick from one year ago, so we expect him to improve as well in 2024. 

If Tampa Bay can maintain their success in the passing game and against the run, while tightening up their secondary and offensive line, they have massive value in the NFC South at +310.