The Kansas City Chiefs went on the road in the playoffs for the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds last season and advanced to the Super Bowl. Many people claimed the Chiefs didn't have a chance last season, including us at times, but they found a way.
As we have expressed many times this season, the Cold, Hard Football Facts don't work for the Chiefs. Our proprietary stats can't show their Championship DNA because they keep games ugly and win them in the fourth quarter.
The Chiefs are 11th in the Quality Stats Power Rankings, which isn't terrible. However, this isn't something we have seen historically from championship teams. The Cold, Hard Football Facts have successfully predicted the outcome of NFL games and seasons for over twenty years.
The Bills rank 5th in the Quality Stats, and they're an underdog, so usually, we would lean toward them in this spot. However, the Chiefs find ways to win, and Buffalo has plenty of weaknesses Kansas City will attack.
Josh Allen must have the game of his life to win because Kansas City doesn't turn the ball over. They may not core, but they hold onto possession and flip the field.
Buffalo won last week because they forced turnovers, so if this isn't the case, they need Allen to be elite. The quarterback is second in Real QBR, so he has the capability. That said, we think Patrick Mahomes can have a massive game on Sunday because of Buffalo's defense.
The Bills rank 18th in Defensive Passer Rating, 17th in Total Team Yards Allowed, and 15th in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt. Mahomes hasn't shown a lot of big passing games, but he is still capable and can exploit a shaky Bills offense.
The Chiefs' defense hasn't been perfect, but they have stepped up when needed this season. Considering they're at home and 3-0 in the playoffs, we must go against the stats and take Kansas City.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.