There have been countless "get right" spots for the Buffalo Bills, but we haven't seen them step up in 2023. The Bills haven't covered a spread since Week 4, with a 3-7 ATS record and the team is +175 to make the playoffs. They were as high as +220 to make the playoffs, but dropped to +175 following Joe Burrow's injury, which basically eliminated the Bengals.
Buffalo is laying seven points against the Jets on Sunday, which isn't an ideal spot for the Bills. This is said to be another "get right" game, but New York is much better than their record shows. Zach Wilson has been a handicap for the team at times, but he is still capable of playing average football.
New York's defense has also been one of the best in the NFL, and embarrassed a lot of quarterbacks. One of those quarterbacks is Josh Allen from the team's opening game of the season where the Jets beat the Bills 22-16 in OT.
We're leaning toward the Jets with the points, but one of our favorite ways to attack this game is in the prop market. New York is led by their defense, but we believe Breece Hall can have a big day running the ball.
Hall has been wildly inconsistent the past few weeks, but he has the capability to dominate on Sunday. Hall carried the ball 10 times for 127 yards, which included an 83 yard long run against the Bills to start the season.
Hall's line is set at 54.5 yards on Sunday, and he has hasn't hit this line in four weeks. Yet, we're trusting him today against a battered Buffalo defense. The Bills rank 14th in Defensive Rusher Rating and 24th in Total Team Yards Allowed.
They're also 22nd in Defensive Passer Rating and 16th in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt. There are ways for the Jets to create a balanced attack against the Bills on Sunday, and if they're able to make this happen, it lines up Hall well to surpass 54.5 rushing yards.