Similar to Defensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player is won primarily by edge rushers, who litter the top of the board. That will make finding the easy fades a bit harder, so we will be looking for production while considering narrative and potential for team improvement.
Garrett oozes talent, and the Browns should take a step forward unless Deshaun Watson's suspension gets extended. He's never won before, so voter fatigue won't be a factor, and voters will be looking to give anyone but Watson credit if the Browns turn things around. Garrett is the deserving favorite and checks every box.
VERDICT: BET
Watt is undeniably talented, but the Steelers' offense will likely continue to struggle with Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett at the helm, and the AFC North is loaded. If the Steelers are bad, it will be difficult for Watt to repeat even if he plays to his standards.
VERDICT: FADE
Donald is still the game's best defender, but voter fatigue has crushed him in recent years, and he gets so much attention it is hard for him to pile up stats like he used to. He's a great player, but if voters have a way to give it to anyone else, they will.
VERDICT: FADE
Parsons had an incredible rookie season, and the Cowboys should be a strong team again, but it will be hard for him to match last year's production if only because of natural regression to the mean.
Maybe Parsons can do it again or improve, but you're better off betting he won't; just ask anyone who backed Chase Young to win this award a season ago.
VERDICT: FADE
Like Watt, Bosa is a great player, but another team with question marks at quarterback and a tough division.
He has a path to winning it, and at +1500 is not the worst bet, but it's hard to see him being better than a healthy Garrett, and the narrative is unlikely to be in his favor. If the Niners are great, Trey Lance is likely stealing the headlines.
VERDICT: FADE
The elder Bosa, on the other hand, is a worthwhile investment. The Chargers are a prime candidate to make a leap, and Bosa should be aided by Khalil Mack, diverting some attention from him. At 27, he should be at the height if his powers and will be in the mix if he can stay healthy. This price is way too short.
VERDICT: BET
Young has shown flashes of talent, but it's hard to justify him being up here with the league's elite defenders after injury and ineffectiveness marred his 2021. If he plays well, keep an eye on his odds next year, but this just feels a year early.
VERDICT: FADE
Derwin James (+3500): A safety has not won this award since 2010; James is great but would need some statistical flukes to even get into the conversation, an easy fade.
Rashan Gary (+3500): Good player, but hard to see him outdoing all of the guys ranked above him, and the Packers are unlikely to improve, fade.
Josh Allen (+7500): If you want a long shot, this is your guy.
The Jags should be leaps and bounds better, and Allen will be one of their defensive anchors. It would require an increase in sack production, but if he can get to around 15 and the Jags can sneak into the playoffs, he will get votes; bet him at 75-1.
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Tanner Kern breaks down the biggest news from the NFL world, discusses fantasy football stategy, and gives his future bets for the 2022 season on the debut of the CHFF Show.